DMPQ-. Explain how Covid-19 pandemic is going to effect the future course of the world.

. COVID-19 will not be the world’s last health emergency and there is an urgent need for sustainable health emergency preparedness to deal with the next one.

Past crises have shown that once an outbreak is under control, governments and donors tend to turn their attention to other pressing concerns. This cycle of “panic-then-forget” has prevented the development of effective health emergency preparedness across the globe. The world needs to break this cycle once and for all.

Scenarios such as this one imagine how the COVID-19 pandemic might play out. Around the world, epidemiologists are constructing short- and long-term projections as a way to prepare for, and potentially mitigate, the spread and impact of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Although their forecasts and timelines vary, modellers agree on two things: COVID-19 is here to stay, and the future depends on a lot of unknowns, including whether people develop lasting immunity to the virus, whether seasonality affects its spread, and — perhaps most importantly — the choices made by governments and individuals.

Yet history bears witness to disease outbreaks existing almost as long as humanity itself. In the last decade alone, we faced six public health emergencies: the 2009 H1N1 swine flu; polio setback in 2014; Zika virus in 2016; the Ebola epidemics of 2014 and 2018. Widespread disruptions in the human-animal-environment interface in recent times have exacerbated such emerging infectious disease (EID) risk. Two-thirds of new diseases affecting humans in last ten years have been zoonotic infections, caused by pathogens originating in animals or animal products and spilling-over to humans.

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